A November New York Times-Siena College poll suggests reason for concern among Democrats: According to the survey, President Joe Biden trails Donald Trump by four points in five out of six swing states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. However, the poll also made an interesting observation: a hypothetical generic, unnamed Democrat led Trump by eight points.
Biden has become one of the most unpopular presidents in modern American history, with voters citing his age (81), propensity for gaffes, and, more recently, his support of Israel’s war on Gaza which has seen more than 22,000 dead as reasons for their low approval. Biden won the White House in 2020 by assembling a coalition of voters, including the progressives, moderates, and even some conservatives, but if this polling is any indication, that coalition could be at risk of fracturing.
Despite these warning signs, few Democrats have stepped forward to challenge Biden, and there is hardly much of a primary to speak of, with no debates and little media attention to alternative candidates. If the party would be better led by a different Democrat, no consensus has emerged as far as who that should be.
Given Michigan’s prominence as a battleground state, it’s perhaps unsurprising that pundits keep looking here for possible alternatives.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer has long been floated as a potential presidential candidate, a rising star who presided over the Great Lakes State’s stunning blue wave since being elected in 2018 and who was even reportedly considered as a running mate for Biden in 2020. But Michigan voters reelected Whitmer in 2022, and expect her to serve through 2027.
Another possibility from Michigan comes from writer Hamilton Nolan, who recently pitched “The Rashida Tlaib For President Scenario” in his Substack newsletter How Things Work. In one sense, Tlaib has an advantage — the U.S. Representative from Detroit’s term ends Jan. 3, 2025, just before Inauguration Day. However, Nolan’s reasoning to draft Tlaib is not to win the White House but rather to pull Biden and the party to the left. “I do not believe it would be possible to mount and run a successful primary challenge to Biden at this point,” Nolan acknowledges. “It would be possible, however, for a left wing candidate to launch an independent presidential campaign explicitly designed to suck votes away from Biden in key swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, etc.” While any progressive would work, according to Nolan, Tlaib is the best choice as “the only Palestinian-American in Congress, and the loudest and bravest voice speaking out against U.S. policy on Palestine.”
The split among Democrats over Israel also led In These Times magazine to look to another Michigan candidate as a possible Biden replacement. In an article published last month, author Gabriel Winant nominates Andy Levin, the former Michigan congressman who comes from a family of Democratic leaders — he succeeded his father, former U.S. Rep. Sander Levin, and is nephew of former U.S. Senator Carl Levin. As a Jewish labor leader who has called for conditions to U.S. aid to Israel and advocated for human rights for the Palestinian people, Levin could make a compelling candidate. After redistricting redrew Michigan’s congressional maps, he lost his seat in 2022 to Haley Stevens, a staunch supporter of Israel who the powerful pro-Israel lobby AIPAC aided with a $4 million campaign. As In These Times sees it, a Levin campaign would be not only for the White House but also against the military-industrial complex. However, despite his political pedigree, Levin is not as widely known as someone like Whitmer or Tlaib, though that might not necessarily be a bad thing.
Of course, there is already a former Michigander in the race. Celebrity spiritual leader Marianne Williamson, who once led a Macomb County church and captivated many across the country when she first ran for president in 2020, was among the first Democrats to campaign against Biden in 2024. According to a November article in The Nation, Williamson is polling against Biden about as well as Republican South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is against Trump, but the Haley campaign has received much more media attention than Williamson’s. Just as she did in 2020, Williamson is once again running on an anti-war platform, even proposing the creation of a U.S. Department of Peace. However, Williamson’s campaign has reportedly been plagued by staff turnover and funding issues.
While all signs, unfortunately, point toward a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024, it’s important to remember that nothing is preordained. In 1964, President Lyndon B. Johnson won the largest popular vote in a landslide election against Barry Goldwater, only to see his political capital rapidly erode. Facing low approval ratings amid the Vietnam War, Johnson withdrew from the 1968 campaign in March of that year, with the primary election already underway. Of course, Biden’s coalition could also strengthen, too. Anything could happen, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Democratic Party looks to Michigan for its next leader.
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