A new poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan shows the race for U.S. Senate remains wide open, with Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens effectively tied and a large share of voters still undecided.
The Data for Progress survey found Stevens at 23% and El-Sayed and McMorrow at 22%, while 33% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were undecided. The poll surveyed 515 likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan from April 2-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The results suggest the Democratic primary is still very much up for grabs less than four months before the Aug. 4 election. The poll also offers a clearer look at the coalition El-Sayed is trying to build, made up of Democratic voters who are largely progressive and especially skeptical of pro-Israel political influence and military escalation in the Middle East.
That could be good news for El-Sayed, a progressive former Wayne County health director who has made opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza and criticism of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) a central part of his campaign.
As previously reported by Metro Times, Israel’s war in Gaza has become a major dividing line in the race, with El-Sayed sharply criticizing U.S. military aid to Israel, Stevens embracing Zionism and drawing heavy support from pro-Israel groups, and McMorrow trying to stake out a position somewhere in between.
The poll found that 64% of likely Democratic primary voters said they would be less likely to support a Senate candidate who receives political donations from AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups, while only 10% said such donations would make them more likely to offer support. Another 27% said it would make no difference.
Since 2022, Stevens has received more than $1.2 million in donations from AIPAC, a powerful pro-Israel lobbying group. She has described herself as a “proud pro-Israel Democrat” and has welcomed endorsements from major pro-Israel Democratic groups. In a statement after the Democratic Majority for Israel’s PAC endorsed her in November 2025, Stevens said she would “support Israel’s security” and “ensure the ceasefire holds in Gaza.”
McMorrow’s message on the war in Gaza has not been consistent. In 2023, she traveled to Israel on a trip sponsored by a major pro-Israel organization and later attended a private pro-Israel leadership event shortly after launching her Senate campaign. At the time, pro-Israel groups considered her “a reliable ally” who aligned with the “party’s pro-Israel fraction.” During a donor call last year, supporter Rob Kalman said McMorrow had prepared an “outstanding” position paper for AIPAC, though it has not been released publicly.
Then last fall, McMorrow said the war in Gaza met “the definition” of genocide, before later cautioning Democrats against turning the term into what she called a political “purity test.” She has since called for a ceasefire and long-term security for both Israelis and Palestinians.
In the poll, voters appeared to connect AIPAC’s influence to larger questions about political independence. About 62% agreed with the statement, “If a candidate is not willing to stand up to AIPAC, I am less likely to trust them to stand up for Michiganders on other issues,” while only 13% disagreed.
The poll also undermines criticism of El-Sayed over his recent campaign appearances with left-wing influencer Hasan Piker, a vocal critic of Israel.
After respondents were told that El-Sayed’s opponents accused Piker of antisemitism and criticized the rallies, and that El-Sayed has argued that criticism of Israel should not be confused with antisemitism, 40% said they approved of El-Sayed inviting Piker to campaign with him on college campuses, compared with 30% who disapproved. Another 30% said they did not know.
Still, many voters said they were unfamiliar with Piker. Only 13% viewed him favorably and 7% unfavorably, while 80% said they had not heard enough about him to say.
In other words, the controversy appears to matter far less to Democratic primary voters than El-Sayed’s critics might have hoped. The poll suggests voters are much more concerned about the role of AIPAC than about a progressive internet personality many barely know.
The survey also found overwhelming opposition to military action against Iran. Just 7% of likely Democratic primary voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate who backs military action against Iran, while 87% said they would be less likely. That included 68% who said they would be “much less likely” to support such a candidate.
Those views are not isolated. Across the poll, likely Democratic primary voters also expressed strong support for a range of progressive positions. About 70% said they would be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by progressive figures such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
About 89% said support for Medicare for All would make them more likely to back a candidate. Ninety percent said the same about advocating for corporate accountability and taxing the rich, and 77% said abolishing ICE would make them more likely to support a candidate.
El-Sayed has made Medicare for All a pillar of his campaign, while McMorrow supports a public option and Stevens calls for strengthening the Affordable Care Act. El-Sayed is the only candidate to call for abolishing ICE, while McMorrow has taken a middle position, saying she supports keeping the agency but wants to force it back toward its stated mission through oversight, funding leverage, and stricter accountability. Stevens has recently used harsh language to describe ICE in the field, calling the agency “out of control,” but in June 2025, Stevens broke with most Democrats and voted in favor of a House resolution that “expresses gratitude to law enforcement officers, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement personnel, for protecting the homeland.”
The poll also asked voters which candidate would be their second choice. About 38% chose McMorrow, 22% chose Stevens, and 13% chose El-Sayed.
In a head-to-head matchup between McMorrow and El-Sayed, McMorrow led 34% to 26%, with 40% still unsure. In a one-on-one matchup between McMorrow and Stevens, McMorrow led 34% to 25%. In a two-way race between Stevens and El-Sayed, Stevens led 34% to 28%.
Those results also show that many voters are still undecided. In all three two-candidate matchups, between 38% and 40% of voters still said they were not sure who their second-choice candidate would be. That uncertainty may be the most important number in the poll. While there is a three-way dead heat, the issue questions suggest Michigan Democratic primary voters are to the left of the party establishment on some of the race’s most polarizing topics, especially AIPAC’s influence and the prospect of war with Iran.
If those issues continue to dominate the primary, voters appear more receptive to El-Sayed’s message than to the more cautious or overtly pro-Israel positioning of his two rivals.
