A new statewide poll shows Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson opening up a narrow lead in Michigan’s 2026 governor’s race, while independent candidate Mike Duggan is losing ground, even after allies and pro-Trumpers poured seven figures into boosting his campaign.
The survey, conducted Feb. 9-16 by Impact Research, found Benson at 39%, Republican U.S. Rep. John James at 36%, and former Detroit Mayor Duggan at 20%, with 5% undecided
The poll surveyed 800 likely 2026 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The numbers mark a shift from earlier polling this year.
In a Jan. 2-6 Detroit News-WDIV survey, James led with 34%, followed by Benson at 32% and Duggan at 26%. In October, an internal Duggan poll showed him at 26%, with Benson at 30% and James at 29%.
The new Impact Research poll suggests Duggan’s support has fallen back to 20%, about where he stood in late 2025, despite heavy spending. The memo notes Duggan “has seen no movement despite his allies spending seven-figures on paid communications to boost him, suggesting that he is close to his ceiling for support”
Benson, meanwhile, is consolidating key Democratic constituencies.
According to the poll, she leads Black voters by 38 points, 62% to Duggan’s 24%, with James at 7%,
She also holds a 9-point advantage among voters under 55 and leads among both college graduates and non-college voters. Duggan does not lead among any demographic subgroup.
Benson’s job approval as secretary of state stands at 52% positive and 38% negative, with 10% unsure.
“It’s no surprise Jocelyn Benson is leading the race for governor. Michiganders know her track record of making government work for the people and protecting our rights and freedoms,” said Nikki Goldschein, Benson’s campaign manager. “As voters continue to learn about her plans to lower costs and hold corporations accountable, her momentum continues to grow.”
The results come as Duggan continues to raise significant money. Recent campaign finance filings show Benson with $3.6 million cash on hand, compared to $2.7 million for Duggan and $2.5 million for James. Duggan has spent the most so far — about $2.4 million — yet has not turned that spending into measurable gains in the latest survey.
Duggan, a longtime Democrat who left the party to run as an independent, has sought to build a coalition of Republicans, independents and disaffected Democrats. But that strategy has also angered many Democratic voters.
Over the past year, Duggan has repeatedly declined to criticize President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, including refusing on live television to say whether Trump’s threats of “punishable by DEATH” against political opponents went too far. He has also declined to spell out how he would limit or oversee cooperation with federal immigration enforcement as governor, even as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations have drawn mounting backlash nationwide.
At the same time, Duggan’s campaign has drawn substantial financial support from prominent Republican donors and Trump allies, including major GOP fundraisers and business executives who have backed Trump and conservative causes. His campaign has also benefited from outside spending by dark money groups that do not disclose their donors.
While Duggan has framed his candidacy as an effort to move beyond “us vs. them” politics, the new poll suggests that approach may have limits.
The race remains close between Benson and James.
James has struggled to gain support among Trumpers after the president complained about the Republican alienating his congressional seat, which Democrats now hope to seize. He’s also faced criticism from Republican rivals over his absence from key GOP debates, and others point to an ethics complaint alleging he used official congressional resources in ways that benefited his gubernatorial campaign.